Birdwatch Archive

Birdwatch Note

2023-04-01 19:59:38 UTC - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING

There is no scientific basis for earthquake prediction. There's always a chance for quakes in areas with active faults, but specific forecasts perform no better than random when tested. https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-you-predict-earthquakes https://scienceexchange.caltech.edu/topics/earthquakes/earthquakes-probabilities https://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2019/predicting-next-big-earthquake/ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00685-y https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article/89/2A/577/525827/Do-Large-Magnitude-8-Global-Earthquakes-Occur-on https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article-abstract/75/5/607/143050/Earthquakes-and-the-Moon-Syzygy-Predictions-Fail https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-position-moon-or-planets-affect-seismicity-are-there-more-earthquakes-morningin-eveningat Fact-checks of user's similar pseudoscience claims: https://www.npr.org/2023/02/07/1154893886/earthquake-prediction-turkey-usgs https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/can-you-predict-an-earthquake/ https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-earthquake-prediction-262451352553 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/05/28/massive-california-earthquake-predicted-for-today/ https://slate.com/technology/2015/05/planetary-alignment-no-it-won-t-cause-an-earthquake.html https://gizmodo.com/will-a-planetary-alignment-cause-a-9-8-earthquake-this-1706933982 https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2018/01/man-s-huge-quake-prediction-is-fearmongering-geonet.html https://twitter.com/bwcphd/status/1633897308499902464 https://twitter.com/PierreSeismo/status/1634593771731189760 https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.11802

Written by 114D3959B7A1FAF013A9773725D3AC9653F490590C8B76CB7CE232B010DE900E
Participant Details

All Information

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• noteId - 1642255418666942465
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• noteAuthorParticipantId - 114D3959B7A1FAF013A9773725D3AC9653F490590C8B76CB7CE232B010DE900E Participant Details
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• classification - MISINFORMED_OR_POTENTIALLY_MISLEADING
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• summary
• There is no scientific basis for earthquake prediction. There's always a chance for quakes in areas with active faults, but specific forecasts perform no better than random when tested. https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-you-predict-earthquakes https://scienceexchange.caltech.edu/topics/earthquakes/earthquakes-probabilities https://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/2019/predicting-next-big-earthquake/ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-023-00685-y https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article/89/2A/577/525827/Do-Large-Magnitude-8-Global-Earthquakes-Occur-on https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article-abstract/75/5/607/143050/Earthquakes-and-the-Moon-Syzygy-Predictions-Fail https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/can-position-moon-or-planets-affect-seismicity-are-there-more-earthquakes-morningin-eveningat Fact-checks of user's similar pseudoscience claims: https://www.npr.org/2023/02/07/1154893886/earthquake-prediction-turkey-usgs https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/can-you-predict-an-earthquake/ https://apnews.com/article/fact-check-earthquake-prediction-262451352553 https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morning-mix/wp/2015/05/28/massive-california-earthquake-predicted-for-today/ https://slate.com/technology/2015/05/planetary-alignment-no-it-won-t-cause-an-earthquake.html https://gizmodo.com/will-a-planetary-alignment-cause-a-9-8-earthquake-this-1706933982 https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2018/01/man-s-huge-quake-prediction-is-fearmongering-geonet.html https://twitter.com/bwcphd/status/1633897308499902464 https://twitter.com/PierreSeismo/status/1634593771731189760 https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.11802