Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 20:44:28 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: CF7364FEC17F283321EB5BAA8077B2C12807D7739218E898D4C2D68B0A6F7067
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details