Birdwatch Note Rating
2024-10-08 21:46:48 UTC - HELPFUL
Rated by Participant: 7C2DAE2B4F2CBBA2C27662247956FD34AEFCCE07CA5C3EF8E9AB2F2A56F4E98A
Participant Details
Original Note:
There is no evidence that betting markets are more accurate than polling. In 2016, most markets heavily favored Clinton, but Trump won. In 2022, most markets wrongly predicted Republicans would win the Senate. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-betting-markets-say-a-day-before-the-election-2016-11-07 https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6874/Which-party-will-control-the-Senate-after-2022-election https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting_odds/2020_president/
All Note Details